The Fork in the Road

The All-Star break is the perfect time for every team to reflect on where they stand so far. With the trade deadline just a few short weeks away, decisions that can alter the course of a franchise need to be made. For some teams, these choices will come easy. Teams like the Astros and the Dodgers with their comfortable division leads and oozing talent have no reason but to plow straight ahead toward October. On the other side, teams like the Orioles and Marlins who have predictably struggled all season will stay true to the plan and sell off any piece that won’t be helpful come several years from now. But for the D-backs and several other teams sandwiched in the middle of the National League, the situation lacks such black-and-white clarity.

The D-backs are 46-45, just barely over .500, and have been oscillating around that marker for the entire season. If they were to make the playoffs, they would be the worst Diamondbacks playoff team ever, unless they win 62% of their remaining games. At times, the roster has seemed uninspiring, especially against division rivals, and several noticeable gaps, such as the back-end of the rotation and the bullpen, would need solutions before a postseason run could be feasible. On the other hand, they are merely a game and a half back from the second Wild Card spot, and as teams like the 2014 World Champion Giants team proved, once you get in, anything can happen. In addition, other indicators of success have shown that the D-backs have been a better team than their won-loss totals have shown; both their run differential and their third-order winning percentage have them as the best team among Wild Card contenders to this date. This creates a puzzling picture for Mike Hazen to interpret as the deadline approaches.

If the team does decide to go for it, they have several issues they would need to address. Notably, the bullpen has been a disaster, with the returning, trusted arms falling apart, and newly-added proven closer Greg Holland struggling to hold down his role. While this is a serious concern for a team in a close race for a playoff spot—a blown save could be the difference of the season—it is even more troublesome once the team does make the postseason. Come October, managers pull starters earlier in the game because the bullpen has both more rest available and fewer upcoming games, so they can theoretically take a larger share of the innings. But this theory falls apart when you don’t have trusted relief arms who can be counted on with the entire season on the line. In 2017, the D-backs placed their trust in Archie Bradley, and while he performed well, it was obvious that he was not capable of carrying the entire weight of the bullpen in the postseason. They needed more elite bullpen arms. Since then, however, the team has fallen from one excellent option to none. If the team is serious about competing, they likely need multiple bullpen arms that have a chance of being trustworthy come October.

The D-backs also have a serious issue with rotation depth. After ineffectiveness from Zack Godley and injuries to Luke Weaver, Taijuan Walker, Jon Duplantier, and Taylor Clarke, the staff is simply out of options. Even as pitchers recover and make their way back towards the rotation, they cannot expect to compete without adding a starter to the roster. In a tightly contesting race—one where nine teams are within five games—failing to provide a realistic shot at winning once or twice every five games will almost surely prevent them from competing. In fact, it could be argued that if it had been addressed earlier, the D-backs would be holding a Wild Card spot now, which would make this decision a bit easier. Fortunately, the issue won’t be crucial if the team does end up in the playoffs because it is primarily the first three starters who receive the bulk of the workload. In this regard, the D-backs are well prepared, as Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Merrill Kelly, and Luke Weaver (when healthy) have kept the team afloat pitching-wise. However, every resource used to bolster the rotation becomes one less resource available to bolster the bullpen, and the team may not be comfortable addressing both issues, causing them perhaps to consider tearing down the squad instead. 

If they do go that route, it’s important to be realistic with what the team could get in return. The D-backs have very few free agents leaving the team this year, with Alex Avila, Greg Holland, and Yoshihisa Hirano the notables on the list. None of these players are going to return anything significant considering their histories of recent struggles, so for the D-backs to gain any real value, they are going to have to trade players with at least a year of control remaining. The offseason afterwards, however, there are plenty of attractive players that teams would love to have for a season and a half: Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., and Taijuan Walker. If Hazen chooses to sell off these players (and then, presumably, Zack Greinke), the D-backs would launch into the upper echelons of farm systems.

However, this strategy comes with a cost. With most of the team returning next year, the D-backs have a somewhat realistic shot of making the playoffs. The young starters that are trying to hold this staff together will be a year older, helping to fix one of the team’s biggest problems. With few holes left after the season ends, the front office could target bullpen arms and depth, and the D-backs would be in better shape to start the season off than they were this year. They’ll have some tough competition to beat as young National League teams like the Padres keep popping up eyeing to end their playoff droughts, but competing would still be realistic. And, if the team struggled to compete, it wouldn’t be as if the organization would be stranded with little direction like the Giants are now. Hazen has managed to build a strong farm system out of dirt despite choosing not to tank, and with three more draft picks on Day 1 next year, the organization will be in a good position to quickly rebuild.

With all this in mind, I’d expect the D-backs plan at the break to be underwhelming in a way. No huge fire sale, no Madison Bumgarner, no flashy sign telling fans what direction the team is headed. They might even do a bit of both, trading for a depth piece or two who will be around next year and dishing away one that won’t, like Alex Avila. It’s essentially the same strategy Hazen has used every time the direction of the team has been in question: stay silent, and let the already present core of the club perform. So far it’s been a marvelous success; with the expectation of years of terrible seasons, the D-backs have two straight winning seasons and a postseason appearance. Eventually, Hazen will have to change course. With so many players leaving after next season, the team he inherited will be gone, and there doesn’t appear to be enough successors to immediately transition into another era of success. But if they do end up with their third and fourth consecutive winning season and perhaps a return trip to the postseason, I doubt too many fans will be upset about a year or two where they wait for the farm to grasp the major league level.

The D-backs are in a good spot overall. They may not have the regular season ease of the Dodgers or the young, raw talent of the Padres, but they have a core that can compete and won’t leave for another year. They need some work around the edges, but they have the potential to make the playoffs again. However, that may not be something that happens this season. The roster as it stands needs serious help in the bullpen and could use an upgrade in the rotation, and Hazen may not be able to add enough for this season. But with very few true rentals to sell, the team may be best off staying put, rolling the dice on this season and then retooling in the offseason for their final shot at glory with this core. There are so many directions this team can turn right now, but perhaps the best isn’t to turn at all and just keep going straight.