Is anyone off limits this D-backs trade deadline?

The D-backs’ season has bridged the gap between bad and historically bad. On June 17, they set the modern MLB record for most consecutive road losses, and the day after, they broke the franchise mark for the most consecutive losses, period. While the expectations for this team were muted at best, the team has quickly shown that the competitive core that once put up three consecutive winning seasons is no longer competitive. It’s time to move on from this chapter of Arizona Diamondbacks history. As the team prepares for the barren valley of rebuilding, they have to decide whether their young stars will join them on the journey.

The D-backs have a pair of hitters under control through 2024 that would draw considerable interest from opposing teams — Ketel Marte and Carson Kelly. Marte, the club’s well-established star, is under team control through his age 30 season. Kelly, currently out with a fractured wrist, can’t be described in quite as illustrious terms, but he’s become one of the best hitting catchers in the game. On the pitching side, 29 other teams would line up for a shot at Zac Gallen’s front-of-the-rotation arm, who is under team control through 2025.

Trading those three stars only makes sense if the team deems it unlikely they’ll be able to contend in the next few years. While it’s easy to say they won’t be competitive in 2022, it becomes a lot harder after that. There simply isn’t enough information about their group of young hitting prospects to know if the D-backs should be competitive in 2023, 2024 or 2025. It’s hard enough to predict how well a team will do before the season begins; guessing how they will do in three years is practically impossible. Those prospects may disappoint, and if they do, the club would regret holding onto Marte and Gallen for the lengths of their contracts. Or the youngsters could turn heads in 2023, and shipping them off would seem like the real mistake. 

Moving them now seems eerily akin to taking a shot in the dark. But the D-backs don’t have to shoot yet. They could wait for the lights to come on, and then make their decision. There is no reason why the club has to make this incredibly difficult decision this trade deadline, and waiting for more information before making this franchise-altering choice could strongly benefit them. Of course, no GM ever has all the information they want. If the D-backs wait until the room is fully lit, they’ll have missed their shot. Eventually, you have to make tough decisions with limited information, but measuring the involved risk is part of the job.

As of now, waiting doesn’t sacrifice that much. In fact, Gallen’s value might actually go up. Given his recent elbow injury, teams looking to compete now might be concerned about his health. If he can stay on the field, then his enormous trade value won’t take a hit anytime soon. Further, Gallen’s lengthy period of club control makes him the least likely player to be traded. Even if the club isn’t competitive in 2023 or 2024, it would be pretty pessimistic to assume they won’t be competitive halfway through this decade. And an arm like his could be the difference between playing baseball in October and going on vacation. Of course, he could undergo Tommy John and never quite recover, but the players who the D-backs receive in return will have much more risk than he currently possesses. At this point, he’s an easy player to hold on to.

Kelly’s injury provides time for the D-backs to wait to decide whether to move him as well. There isn’t presently a timetable for his injury, but he will likely miss most — if not all — of the season. Therefore, his trade value won’t drop from here until the offseason. During that time, however, the front office will hand regular playing time to Daulton Varsho, who come become a strong MLB catcher. If he can, moving Kelly in the winter may make sense. After his incredible start the season, his stock may be around its peak although the injury dampens the mood. Further, trading only Kelly would hedge the team’s bets on their farm system’s future success.

That decision could backfire quickly if they make it now. If Varsho can’t establish himself behind the dish, they will have traded away their franchise catcher without a long-term alternative in the system. It would be back to the days of finding veteran backstops to hold down the fort — the Jeff Mathises and Alex Avilas of the world. With little cost to waiting, the D-backs should reap the benefit of getting to watch Varsho adjust to MLB pitching.

The dynamics are trickier for Marte. There’s not much that he could do to increase his value. Staying on the field and performing well are nice, but nobody is worried about his profile moving forward. Losing those extra months or years of control will decrease his trade value. However, there’s substantially less drop-off in value when a star player goes from four years of control to three compared to going from two years to one. Marte’s value is already so enormous that teams would struggle to pay it; while it won’t be quite as massive a year from now, it would still be enormous. There is certainly a cost to waiting on Ketel, but waiting now doesn’t risk much.

Eventually, the D-backs are going to decide what their realistic outlook is over the next few years, and that certainly will inform their decisions on Gallen, Marte and Kelly. They won’t have as much information as they’ll want. But right now, the risk of waiting and seeing how some of their top prospects develop isn’t that significant. For these decisions that have the potential to float or sink the team’s future, it might be worth the wait.

2 Replies to “Is anyone off limits this D-backs trade deadline?

  1. Trading away many of our best players over the last 4 seasons has been such an awesome strategy. Why not clear out the rest of them going into our 5th year of “tebuilding?”

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