Why the Diamondbacks Should Keep Zack Greinke

The Major League Baseball trade deadline is less than 24 hours away. After some initial obscurity, it is now no secret that the Diamondbacks are focused on selling. Moreover, MLB Network Insider J.P. Morosi is not alone in thinking that the D-backs are “running point” this trade deadline, as he wrote earlier today. With the sheer number of valuable assets on the roster–particularly Alex Avila, Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, Jarrod Dyson, Zack Greinke, Adam Jones, David Peralta, and Robbie Ray–D-backs General Manager Mike Hazen is truly in a powerful position. Out of these names, the biggest game-changer of them all is clearly Greinke, who is somehow posting one of the best seasons of his sixteen-year career at age 35. As identified sellers, the mid-market Diamondbacks would seemingly be in prime position to deal their expensive ace. Don’t be fooled.

On one hand, Greinke’s value cannot be overstated. He is probably the best starting pitcher widely available to contenders right now–yes, better than New York Mets starter Noah “Thor” Syndergaard, whose brand has somehow masked a career of underwhelming performance and questionable durability. Greinke has posted 3.6 fWAR in 22 starts this year, which ranks fifth in the National League behind only Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. His 2.87 ERA is seventh in the NL and his 0.94 WHIP is first. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 7.1 is the best of his career–yes, even better than the 5.0 mark he posted during his famed 1.66 ERA campaign with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015. Forget the age, forget the velocity. Greinke is at the top of his game.

If he is so good, the Diamondbacks could cash in and get an enormous haul, right? Not exactly. As has been well-documented by analysts across the game, trading Greinke would be about as difficult as trying to hit the right-hander’s nasty 67 mph curveball. The struggle starts with the richest contract in Diamondbacks history (by literally a factor of three in total value). Greinke is due to make roughly $11.5 million for the final two months of the season, in addition to $35 million for each of the next two seasons. That is over $80 million between now and when his contract expires following the 2021 season. Throw in the fact that Greinke has a 15-team no-trade clause that includes several of the teams who have shown interest in him–like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, and St. Louis Cardinals–and finding a trade partner is suddenly even more complicated. There has been no indication that Greinke wants to be anywhere other than Arizona, so it would probably take some persuasion and/or further compensation to get Greinke to waive his no-trade clause.

When we consider the state of the current trade market and recent trends among front offices, the conditions for a Greinke trade only get bleaker. First, we have a Marcus Stroman trade that yielded a relatively underwhelming return for the Toronto Blue Jays, who received the fourth and sixth best prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, from a middling Mets’ farm system. Of course, Greinke is a better pitcher than Stroman and offers one more year of team control, but consider also that Stroman is due about $2.5 million for the rest of 2019 and probably less than $15 million in arbitration next year. In other words, Greinke through 2021 will probably cost about five times as much as Stroman through 2020. Suddenly, it is unclear who actually has more trade value of the two.

This observation leads us to a very crucial follow-up question: how will the enormity of Greinke’s contract affect his value to teams? Unfortunately, baseball’s lethargic winter in which not even established Major Leaguers like Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel could find jobs by Opening Day suggests that owners are as resistant as ever of stretching the budget. In other words, Greinke’s contract is likely to be a significant hurdle for other teams. As many have suspected, the D-backs would likely be left with a choice of dumping the contract and receiving little in return, or eating a portion of the contract and receiving a little more. In the former scenario, the D-backs would clear $35 million off the payroll for each of the next two years. Greinke is still a great pitcher, though. In fact, according to Fangraphs, Greinke is on pace to produce $43.2 million of value this year. Why would Arizona want to dump a contract that Greinke is currently out-performing? In the latter scenario, based on the Stroman trade and the currently exorbitant value that teams are placing on their top prospects, I am skeptical that kicking in cash would sweeten the return significantly for Hazen and company.

Ultimately, Greinke has provided consistent top-of-the-rotation stability that the Diamondbacks have not had since…Brandon Webb? Moreover, while Arizona’s farm system is on the rise, there are no clear top-of-the-rotation arms expected to be ready between now and when Greinke’s contract expires after 2021. Sell as they may in 2019, the D-backs have made it clear they are not planning a large-scale rebuild for five years from now. It is conceivable that improving the bullpen over the offseason and getting a healthy Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker back next year could lead this team into contention again. Even at age 35, Greinke somehow is only getting better. For now, that value is better harnessed on this roster than off it.